Sunday, October 5, 2008

This weekend in Gotham...

...I just returned from a diner-brunch and a walk in the brisk, grey soup going on outside. Exhilarating, feet chilled. I passed one of those Sunday street fairs, and wandered for a couple of miles past all of the white tents and stalls. This week it's called the Oktoberfest, although no beer passed around Madison Ave at 11am.

It's an exercise in econony and politics, one of many great things about living here, in the Center of it All. On the midtown streets, Sunday morning is pondering and walking and observing.

An Interesting Dinner Friday night.

I had no plans with anyone, but forgot to eat anything the entire day so far. I worked like a machine all week, needed fresh air and a reward, and so, I needed really excellent Indian food. I walked into the Malika restaurant near the UN, near my home.

It was empty, the restaurant glittered with gold filigree and red embroidery, and in the center the restaurant were large stage lights and a very thin, pretty, agressive woman interviewing an older diplomat. It turned out to be Pakistani TV, and he was a Senior UN delegate closing up his week at the UN General Assembly.

In a Pak-lish mix of chatter, they covered Kashmir, corruption, Musharref, and the happiness of the people. All spitfire and 24 years old at the most, I admired how the older gentleman did not lose patience with her as she spewed out her western theories of what should happen, what had happened...the woman herself was obviously spoiled, well to do, had a great job, and was probably over-paid due to her enormous looks. But to tell a career diplomat of 50 years what to do about Pakistan, from her frame of reference, I was frankly amused and fascinated that he paid due respect to her opinions, naive as they were, expressed as they were with too much anger and vehemence and a lack of courtesy to anyone else's thoughts...Kids today!

LOL, only in NY. The food was awesome, by the way. No one makes Indian/Pakistani food the way this place does! Last time I was here, I fell in with a group of UN Peacekeepers who were on the nuclear proliferation team, about to head off to Korea.

Only in NY. I grinned and stuffed my face with the Saag, drank deeply of some wine, and finally let go of the stresses of the day.

Weighing in on the Economy, the Bailout, and Oops, here we are again.

My officemate, Patrick, asks me last week, "They turned down the bailout measure, what do you think...?"

What do I think, I repeat aloud. Well, it's a cycle, isn't it? In the immediate term, the bailout will happen. They only turned it down because it was too vague and undefined. It will happen, though. And it did. But isn't it all just part of the cycle?

My sister, in a past life, was a loan officer for Wells Fargo, and we argued much and often about lending practices. Her own leanings are very far right - laissez faire, emphasis on personal responsibility. Her portfolios were in the mid-market borrowing range, commercial lending. Her message: It's a cycle, 20 years ago it was Savings and Loan, and now here we are again.

I pondered to my officemate the lack of individual or corporate personal fiscal responsibility that comes out of a "free market society" which runs unfettered on the classic bet: can I consume this item and not pay for it for the longest time possible, AND hope that my job is stable so I don't get laid off or sick? Can I get what I want and bury my head in the sand that you have to pay for it one way or another?

Should I feel so sorry for the house-flippers, who bought multiple homes to artificially raise the value of housing, in the hopes they could run away with a large profit and not have to pay off the loan they made in this speculation? I do feel sorry for people laid off and jobs lost, when people tightened their belts and refused to spend for the luxury goods and services they needed to keep up with the Jones'.

My own life was a series of individual loan crises: luxury travel, goods and services to achieve a polished sheen, and restaurants - bars - clubs and what_have_you, because I was bored. I am still paying off trips that happened 10 years ago; "the" shoes that I wore and threw out after a year; and isn't a bag, after all, just a bag? I'm almost out, I have a good job that is stable as long as I work seven days a week and give up sleep, and it works now that I have returned to my beloved city, the cheapest place in all the places I have lived, to recoup, recover, and remember.

Rambling? Back to the point: personal fiscal responsibility. That's the lesson I learned the hardway. I mean, I don't want to play the latest happy hour bar-game, "What should Congress and the President do now?"

The point for us is not to get screwed in the downturn part of the cycle. Don't buy on credit what I don't need. What about growth, says the otherside, what about how credit spending is the key to a growing GNP? Yeah, but that's a gamble. If one borrows, one should borrow for capital investment, for goodness sake, not for the Prada coat or a hot shiny car...And if it is borrowing to make more money in the future, make sure it does make more money, be smart! Is the bet worth it? Will I be able to pay back?

Can I pay back the money that I borrow? What if I get sick or lose my job?

I avoided getting butt-seksd this time, I told my officemate. If it is a cycle then how do you stay out of trouble? Growth based on loose lending practices and undisciplined luxury spending or bad investments by the commercial giants - to boom (and you know it's going to pop, you KNOW it, when too many people do the same thing), and burst, contract - less spending, layoff of jobs, more people in the streets, and less items available....Bailout...slow growth - cautious feeling that things are getting better, and the meteoric rise to boom phase again.

On BBCAmerica, the interview-lady asked, all fierce teeth, "Doesn't that mean that the American model doesn't work??" she asked stridently? "No," replied some economic guru sitting in the greenroom of the studio, a fake skyline blinking behind him. "It means there are some problems with the model that we need to fix. How many times have we seen this in the past?" he asked. Well, Duh.

I guess it means I need to watch my spending - not buy anything consumable unless it is bought with outright cash. Don't borrow unless it's to make more money (and make it a good gamble). Do well at my job, even if it means staying up all night seven days a week. Work in an industry that will continue to have demand and customers will pay, even through a recession...

Hard though, walking down Madison Avenue, saying no to those boots, and eating less-expensive meals all the time, putting off travel until gas prices go down, not buying stuff yet for the apartment...

I put the lovely silk rug down sadly, shook my head at the guy in one of those tents at the street fair, and walked on home.

I was offended when I saw the Madison Avenue matrons still carrying bags-and-bags of 1000 count linens, the new Burberry fall coat, and just had their nails done, hair swinging as only a $500 a hit hairstylist can achieve.

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